It's going to be a chilly winter and a late spring this year for large parts of the chemicals industry but its too soon to rule out an Indian summer for the third quarter.
That was the message from the European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC) annual outlook conference in Brussels in late November. Malcolm Mitchell, speaking in place of Ralph Gronych of Cefic's economics panel told the audience that there is an 80% chance of this scenario coming to pass in 2002. There is a 20% chance that things could get worse, but this would depend on whether the War against Terrorism is limited to Afghanistan or if it spills over that country's borders. If they do then there could be serious implications for the oil price.
The oil price holds the key to much of what …
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